In the past week, many articles have been published discussing the possibility of a very strong El Niño taking place this summer. They’re calling it ‘super,’ an unofficial term that serves to sensationalize the weather event.
Tom Brannon, chief meteorologist for THV11, said “Does it bother me? Yeah, but can I control it? No. I mean, they’re gonna do what they’re gonna do. Stay in your lane, I’ll stay in mine, we’ll do what we do, you do what you do. And, it’s okay to me, if the platform is large enough, eventually, people are going to check those folks out, and they’re gonna come to realize, hey, they’re not as dependable or as accurate as the good ole National Weather Service.”
El Niño is a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which describes the temperature variation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When this part of the ocean is warmer than 0.5 degrees celsius above normal, it’s in El Niño. ‘Super El Niño’ is an unofficial term for the ocean temperature reaching at least 2 degrees celsius above normal. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association classifies this as a “very strong” El Niño.
El Niño will likely emerge this Summer between May and July, and continue at least through the end of 2026. Though most El Niños last 9-12 months, on occasion “El Niño will come and sit for a while, it just won’t go away, it will stay for a year or two,” according to Brannon.
For Arkansans, Brannon says “years of research and gathering data on El Niño typically tells us that our sensible weather is expected to be wetter than average, and milder than average.” However, many events can change this, “you’ve got to factor in what’s happening in the Arctic, you know, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, polar vortex, you know, you gotta factor all those things in, and it’s never exact. It’s always variable,” Brannon said.
El Niño affects the rest of the world differently. O’Connell said, “A summer El Niño has the effect of reducing the potential for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. So we’re likely to have fewer named Atlantic hurricanes because of the presence of El Niño.”
It’s too early to tell if there will be a very strong El Niño this year. When asked about the likelihood, Dr. Stephen O’Connell, Professor and Chair of the Department of Geography, said “I mean, 25% chance is just as it stands now, that’s what the models suggest, but the trend line does indicate that it’s probably going to be a little bit stronger of an El Niño than we’ve seen previously.”
Brannon said, “It looks as if it’s going to be a fairly strong El Niño. It could last through the end of 2026 and really impact us through the latter part of this year, and the early part of next year.”